The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), long a Republican policy goal, officially became federal law on July 4, 2025. In late June, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed to send the finalized legislation to President Trump before Independence Day, after the Senate passed its version. He delivered on that promise. The bill narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House with a vote of 218–214.

The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” making its way through Capitol Hill has sparked intense debate, particularly among fiscal conservatives and budget deficit hawks. Supporters promote the bill as a sweeping, comprehensive reconciliation package that aims to consolidate tax cuts, spending reforms, and Medicaid restructuring into a single piece of legislation. By advancing the bill through the budget reconciliation process, backers hope to bypass filibusters and secure passage with simple majorities.

Four times a year, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, measuring the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country. The BEA’s initial estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed an unexpected contraction in real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation. This indicated a potential slowdown compared to the previous quarter.

US stocks broadly extended their losses through March, following a decline in February, as investors remained cautious ahead of significant US trade tariff actions. The introduction of increased trade barriers may hamper global output, restrict economic growth, and raise consumer prices—all critical factors that can negatively impact stock market valuations.

Investors adjusted expectations in February, as they attempted to decipher how tariffs, government austerity, and unresolved regional wars affect their investments and portfolios. As a result, market interest rates and equity prices declined based on how investors think those broader themes change future investment returns.

More Januarys than not seem to experience positive market returns. A few economic theories attempt to explain why this market anomaly could exist. One theory is some investors sell securities in December for tax purposes and turn into net buyers in January. Well, this January followed historical examples as global markets broadly earned investors returns in January, setting 2025 off with positive momentum.

The New Year holiday is a special time to reflect on what has passed and strive for a better future. A nineteenth-century poet, Alfred Tennyson, succinctly described it as a time to "ring out the old, ring in the new" in his poem, "In Memoriam A.H.H." Investors can likely identify with Tennyson's trope as the most recent chapter in investment history filled with examples of big tech, inflation, and higher for longer market interest rates draws to an end, preparing the next chapter after it for storytellers of the market.

After an impressive month of financial returns, November may have offered investors new investment insights. Many market and economic events unfolded over the recent past creating uncertainty and potential opportunity. The US election ended undisputed; candidate selection began for important executive branch jobs; threats of trade tariffs elevated; external conflicts consumed global politics; and US financial markets took another favorable step forward.

The United States concluded its 60th quadrennial presidential election, electing a Republican as the nation's next commander and chief and 47th President to serve in the White House. In addition, the election results turned the US Senate over to the Republicans after four years of Democrat control. With another layer of uncertainty related to elections removed from markets, market prices are adjusting to the anticipated policies of the new administration.

Higher interest rates in the US may be starting to countercyclically affect outside economies because of the strong demand for US dollars. When financial markets demand fewer non-US dollar assets, all those foreign exchange reserves go home to roost, increasing the odds that those international economies will experience renewed inflation threats.

The road out of the pandemic has been a rocky ride in terms of monetary policy and investment markets. Public equity valuations and fixed coupon bonds have recently been experiencing the effect of a capital rate adjustment.

The Taylor rule is a policy tool used in monetary policy. It consists of three different components to help guide interest rate decisions in the economy. The first expression represents the natural rate of interest that should exist in harmonious equilibrium.

Recent experience in market investments has moved down from the highs as a new economic reality takes over. Material shifts affecting economic activity are not limited to but include the Ukrainian crisis and record inflation that warrants a more restrictive role of money in the marketplace.

Stocks pulled back in January as investors prepared for the interest rate takeoff. As a result, US large-caps rolled backward to end with losses in the mid-single-digits. Small-cap losses were even more significant in size.

The Santa Clause rally happened, and US stock indexes pushed higher to close 2021 with impressive gains. In summary, and according to public data given out by S&P Global, large-cap stocks returned more than small-cap stocks in 2021, and small-cap beat out mid-cap.

Big media has refocused coverage on the new coronavirus variant. Research in the pharmaceutical industry is already underway to obtain the gene sequence of Omicron. As a result, vaccines and booster shots will likely soon come with an antibody to act as a line of defense against the variant. Still, investors sold the news as renewed shutdowns and restrictions became prominent concerns. However, President Biden was quick to discourage shutdowns as an acceptable policy response to Omicron.

The economy's real growth supposedly slowed down to a tepid two percent annualized rate in the third quarter. However, the markets thought the annualized rate would come in above two and a half percent so, when it didn't, investors took action, and bond market yields reacted.

Marketplace valuations have reached new heights, and interest rates have revisited lows. So naturally, it is normal to experience more uneasiness and weariness around the limits of financial returns, creating heightened awareness in all those involved. Indeed, anything vaguely connected with the delta-variant, inflation, credit defaults, government deadlocks, and challenging labor markets can captivate the public right now.

A significant sum of US dollars has gone into global market operations since the last round of stimulus efforts began. Specifically, the M2 money stock increased to over 20 trillion US dollars from the 15.5 trillion dollars in place less than twenty four months ago.

Another fascinating market dislocation is happening in the government debt markets of the financial economy. This supply and demand imbalance can affect prices on almost every asset, and is currently forcing long-term interest rates back down.